World Cup 2026
Predicting the Round of 32 From Recent Form in 2026
Round of 32 → The Final · Poisson model · updated Jul 21, 2026
Pre-tournament pick
Argentina
Every head-to-head shows the model's favorite to advance across 90', extra time and penalties. After each round, the bracket takes the real winners and the model refits on those results before predicting the next round, so every later prediction builds on what actually happened, misses included. Start at the outside and follow the winners toward the middle, or use the tabs to jump to one half of the draw.
Model accuracy · scored live
32 of 32 ties settled · updated Jul 21, 2026Advancement calls
24/3275%
ties where the model picked the right team to go through
Across the 6 markets
107/19256%
every market prediction, summed over settled games
The six bets
Match result (W/D/L)
Total goals — over/under 1.5
Total goals — over/under 2.5
Total goals — over/under 3.5
Both teams to score
Correct scoreline (90′)
Detailed result breakdown · 32 games
FRA4–6ENG
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✓Score ✗
ESP0–0ARG
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✗O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
FRA0–2ESP
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
ENG1–2ARG
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
FRA2–0MAR
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
ESP2–1BEL
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
NOR1–1ENG
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✓Score ✗
ARG1–1SUI
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
CAN0–3MAR
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
PAR0–1FRA
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✗O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
BRA1–2NOR
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✓Score ✗
MEX2–3ENG
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✗Score ✗
POR0–1ESP
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
USA1–4BEL
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
ARG3–2EGY
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✓Score ✗
SUI0–0COL
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✗O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
RSA0–1CAN
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✗O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✓
GER1–1PAR
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✓Score ✗
NED1–1MAR
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✓Score ✗
BRA2–1JPN
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
FRA3–0SWE
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✗Score ✗
CIV1–2NOR
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
MEX2–0ECU
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✗O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
ENG2–1COD
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
USA2–0BIH
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✗Score ✗
BEL2–2SEN
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
POR2–1CRO
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
ESP3–0AUT
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✗
SUI2–0ALG
advance ✗Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✗O/U 3.5 ✗BTTS ✗Score ✗
ARG1–1CPV
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
COL1–0GHA
advance ✓Result ✓O/U 1.5 ✗O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✓Score ✓
AUS1–1EGY
advance ✓Result ✗O/U 1.5 ✓O/U 2.5 ✓O/U 3.5 ✓BTTS ✗Score ✗
The boards, round by round
How the Model Works
| Method | Bivariate-Poisson / Dixon-Coles; ratings fit by regularized Poisson MLE (World-Cup weighted). |
| Data | From 200 total 2026 matches: the full group stage (72) + 128 international friendlies across all teams. |
| Markets | StatsAPI connected; real market outcomes compared against the model to find a market edge. |
Model estimates carry variance; this was a forecast, not betting advice.