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FrancevEngland
Third-place match · Sat Jul 18
FIFA rank FRA #3 · ENG #4
importance95
expected goals 2.43 – 1.16
best valueResult · France winpaper bet lost ✗
buy yes at 54¢ · model 65% · elo/fifa 41%
edge
+10.9%
full-kelly
21.1%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · sized as a share of a paper bankroll, not real moneyfee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · France win | 41 | 54 | 65 | +10.9 | bet |
| Result · Draw (90′) | 28 | 25 | 19 | -6.2 | pass |
| Result · England win | 31 | 26 | 16 | -10.1 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | 88 | 88 | +0.3 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | 69 | 70 | +0.4 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | 48 | 48 | +0.8 | pass |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | 69 | 63 | -6.2 | pass |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
65%
edge
+11.0%
half-kelly stake
10.0%