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France
FIFA #3
Third-place match
Sat Jul 18
England
FIFA #4
importance95
expected goals 2.43 – 1.16
best valueResult — France win
buy yes at 54¢ · model 65% · elo/fifa 41%
edge
+10.9%
full-kelly
21.1%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · tracked paper bankroll (sample sizing, not real money)fee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · France win415465+10.9bet
Result · Draw (90′)282519-6.2pass
Result · England win312616-10.1pass
Total goals · Over 1.5—8888+0.3pass
Total goals · Over 2.5—6970+0.4pass
Total goals · Over 3.5—4848+0.8pass
Both teams score · Yes—6963-6.2pass
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
65%
edge
+11.0%
half-kelly
10.0%
stake
$1,000