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PortugalvSpain
Round of 16 · Mon Jul 6
importance95
expected goals 0.61 – 0.97
No market price was attached to this game. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Try a price in the what-if panel to see the edge and half-Kelly it would have implied.
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Portugal win | — | — | 22 | — | no market |
| Result · Draw (90′) | — | — | 36 | — | no market |
| Result · Spain win | — | — | 42 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | — | 48 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | — | 21 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | — | 8 | — | no market |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | — | 29 | — | no market |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
22%
edge
-0.1%
half-kelly stake
0.0%