← all matches
Portugal
FIFA #
Round of 16
Mon Jul 6
Spain
FIFA #
importance95
expected goals 0.61 – 0.97
No live odds connected. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Enter the current Robinhood / Kalshi price in the what-if panel to compute the edge and half-Kelly.
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · Portugal win——22—no market
Result · Draw (90′)——36—no market
Result · Spain win——42—no market
Total goals · Over 1.5——48—no market
Total goals · Over 2.5——21—no market
Total goals · Over 3.5——8—no market
Both teams score · Yes——29—no market
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
22%
edge
-0.1%
half-kelly
0.0%
stake
$0