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United StatesvBelgium
Round of 16 · Mon Jul 6
importance95
expected goals 1.85 – 3.05
No market price was attached to this game. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Try a price in the what-if panel to see the edge and half-Kelly it would have implied.
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · United States win | — | — | 22 | — | no market |
| Result · Draw (90′) | — | — | 17 | — | no market |
| Result · Belgium win | — | — | 62 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | — | 96 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | — | 87 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | — | 72 | — | no market |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | — | 81 | — | no market |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
22%
edge
+0.5%
half-kelly stake
0.0%