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SpainvBelgium
Quarterfinals · Fri Jul 10
importance95
expected goals 1.33 – 0.90
No market price was attached to this game. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Try a price in the what-if panel to see the edge and half-Kelly it would have implied.
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Spain win | — | — | 46 | — | no market |
| Result · Draw (90′) | — | — | 29 | — | no market |
| Result · Belgium win | — | — | 25 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | — | 66 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | — | 39 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | — | 19 | — | no market |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | — | 44 | — | no market |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
46%
edge
+0.0%
half-kelly stake
0.0%