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SpainvArgentina
Final · Sun Jul 19
FIFA rank ESP #2 · ARG #1
importance95
expected goals 1.62 – 0.77
best valueResult · Spain winpaper bet lost ✗
buy yes at 44¢ · model 57% · elo/fifa 39%
edge
+12.6%
full-kelly
20.5%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · sized as a share of a paper bankroll, not real moneyfee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Spain win | 39 | 44 | 57 | +12.6 | bet |
| Result · Draw (90′) | 28 | 33 | 26 | -7.5 | pass |
| Result · Argentina win | 33 | 28 | 17 | -10.6 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | 71 | 70 | -1.8 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | 44 | 43 | -0.6 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | 25 | 22 | -3.0 | pass |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | 52 | 44 | -8.6 | pass |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
57%
edge
+13.0%
half-kelly stake
10.0%