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Spain
FIFA #2
Final
Sun Jul 19
Argentina
FIFA #1
importance95
expected goals 1.62 – 0.77
best valueResult — Spain win
buy yes at 44¢ · model 57% · elo/fifa 39%
edge
+12.6%
full-kelly
20.5%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · tracked paper bankroll (sample sizing, not real money)fee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · Spain win394457+12.6bet
Result · Draw (90′)283326-7.5pass
Result · Argentina win332817-10.6pass
Total goals · Over 1.5—7170-1.8pass
Total goals · Over 2.5—4443-0.6pass
Total goals · Over 3.5—2522-3.0pass
Both teams score · Yes—5244-8.6pass
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
57%
edge
+13.0%
half-kelly
10.0%
stake
$1,000