← all matches
NetherlandsvMorocco
Round of 32 · Mon Jun 29
importance90
expected goals 1.59 – 2.56
No market price was attached to this game. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Try a price in the what-if panel to see the edge and half-Kelly it would have implied.
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Netherlands win | — | — | 23 | — | no market |
| Result · Draw (90′) | — | — | 19 | — | no market |
| Result · Morocco win | — | — | 58 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | — | 92 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | — | 78 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | — | 60 | — | no market |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | — | 74 | — | no market |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
23%
edge
-0.4%
half-kelly stake
0.0%