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GermanyvParaguay
Round of 32 · Mon Jun 29
importance90
expected goals 2.78 – 1.42
No market price was attached to this game. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Try a price in the what-if panel to see the edge and half-Kelly it would have implied.
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Germany win | — | — | 66 | — | no market |
| Result · Draw (90′) | — | — | 17 | — | no market |
| Result · Paraguay win | — | — | 17 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | — | 93 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | — | 79 | — | no market |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | — | 60 | — | no market |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | — | 71 | — | no market |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
66%
edge
-0.3%
half-kelly stake
0.0%