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Norway
FIFA #31
Quarterfinals
Fri Jul 10
England
FIFA #4
importance95
expected goals 2.58 – 2.06
best valueResult — Norway win
buy yes at 28¢ · model 50% · elo/fifa 26%
edge
+21.9%
full-kelly
29.1%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · tracked paper bankroll (sample sizing, not real money)fee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · Norway win262850+21.9bet
Result · Draw (90′)282919-9.5pass
Result · England win475031-18.8pass
Total goals · Over 1.5—7795+17.9bet
Total goals · Over 2.5—5284+31.8bet
Total goals · Over 3.5—2968+38.8bet
Both teams score · Yes—5781+23.9bet
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
50%
edge
+21.7%
half-kelly
10.0%
stake
$1,000