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NorwayvEngland
Quarterfinals · Fri Jul 10
FIFA rank NOR #31 · ENG #4
importance95
expected goals 2.58 – 2.06
best valueResult · Norway winpaper bet lost ✗
buy yes at 28¢ · model 50% · elo/fifa 26%
edge
+21.9%
full-kelly
29.1%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · sized as a share of a paper bankroll, not real moneyfee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Norway win | 26 | 28 | 50 | +21.9 | bet |
| Result · Draw (90′) | 28 | 29 | 19 | -9.5 | pass |
| Result · England win | 47 | 50 | 31 | -18.8 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | 77 | 95 | +17.9 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | 52 | 84 | +31.8 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | 29 | 68 | +38.8 | bet |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | 57 | 81 | +23.9 | bet |
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
50%
edge
+21.7%
half-kelly stake
10.0%