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France
FIFA #3
Semifinals
Tue Jul 14
Spain
FIFA #2
importance95
expected goals 1.08 – 1.03
No live odds connected. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Enter the current Robinhood / Kalshi price in the what-if panel to compute the edge and half-Kelly.
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · France win354336-6.8pass
Result · Draw (90′)283131+0.4pass
Result · Spain win373233+0.6pass
Total goals · Over 1.5—7863-14.6pass
Total goals · Over 2.5—5235-17.2pass
Total goals · Over 3.5—2916-13.1pass
Both teams score · Yes—5943-15.7pass
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
36%
edge
-7.2%
half-kelly
0.0%
stake
$0