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FrancevSpain
Semifinals · Tue Jul 14
FIFA rank FRA #3 · ESP #2
importance95
expected goals 1.08 – 1.03
No market price was attached to this game. The probabilities below are the model's, fit from 2026 results. Try a price in the what-if panel to see the edge and half-Kelly it would have implied.
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · France win | 35 | 43 | 36 | -6.8 | pass |
| Result · Draw (90′) | 28 | 31 | 31 | +0.4 | pass |
| Result · Spain win | 37 | 32 | 33 | +0.6 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | 78 | 63 | -14.6 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | 52 | 35 | -17.2 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | 29 | 16 | -13.1 | pass |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | 59 | 43 | -15.7 | pass |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
36%
edge
-7.2%
half-kelly stake
0.0%