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EnglandvArgentina
Semifinals · Wed Jul 15
FIFA rank ENG #4 · ARG #1
importance95
expected goals 1.43 – 1.90
best valueResult · Argentina winpaper bet won ✓
buy yes at 33¢ · model 48% · elo/fifa 44%
edge
+14.8%
full-kelly
20.5%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · sized as a share of a paper bankroll, not real moneyfee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · England win | 28 | 39 | 29 | -10.6 | pass |
| Result · Draw (90′) | 28 | 33 | 23 | -10.0 | pass |
| Result · Argentina win | 44 | 33 | 48 | +14.8 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | 71 | 85 | +13.5 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | 44 | 65 | +21.1 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | 23 | 43 | +19.4 | bet |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | 51 | 65 | +13.8 | bet |
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
29%
edge
-10.4%
half-kelly stake
0.0%