← all matches
England
FIFA #4
Semifinals
Wed Jul 15
Argentina
FIFA #1
importance95
expected goals 1.43 – 1.90
best valueResult — Argentina win
buy yes at 33¢ · model 48% · elo/fifa 44%
edge
+14.8%
full-kelly
20.5%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · tracked paper bankroll (sample sizing, not real money)fee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · England win283929-10.6pass
Result · Draw (90′)283323-10.0pass
Result · Argentina win443348+14.8bet
Total goals · Over 1.5—7185+13.5bet
Total goals · Over 2.5—4465+21.1bet
Total goals · Over 3.5—2343+19.4bet
Both teams score · Yes—5165+13.8bet
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
29%
edge
-10.4%
half-kelly
0.0%
stake
$0