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Argentina
FIFA #1
Quarterfinals
Sat Jul 11
Switzerland
FIFA #19
importance95
expected goals 2.13 – 1.22
best valueTotal goals — Over 1.5
buy yes at 71¢ · model 85% · elo/fifa —
edge
+13.8%
full-kelly
44.9%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · tracked paper bankroll (sample sizing, not real money)fee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
marketelo/fifamarketmodeledgeverdict
Result · Argentina win555958-1.0pass
Result · Draw (90′)282922-7.1pass
Result · Switzerland win171921+1.7pass
Total goals · Over 1.5—7185+13.8bet
Total goals · Over 2.5—4665+19.6bet
Total goals · Over 3.5—2543+18.0bet
Both teams score · Yes—4863+14.9bet
What-if: live price
Type the current price to resize against the model instantly.
model
58%
edge
-1.2%
half-kelly
0.0%
stake
$0