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ArgentinavSwitzerland
Quarterfinals · Sat Jul 11
FIFA rank ARG #1 · SUI #19
importance95
expected goals 2.13 – 1.22
best valueTotal goals · Over 1.5paper bet won ✓
buy yes at 71¢ · model 85% · elo/fifa —
edge
+13.8%
full-kelly
44.9%
half-kelly
10.0%
f* = (p − c) / (1 − c) · half-Kelly · sized as a share of a paper bankroll, not real moneyfee-adjusted · 1¢/contract each side
| market | elo/fifa | market | model | edge | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result · Argentina win | 55 | 59 | 58 | -1.0 | pass |
| Result · Draw (90′) | 28 | 29 | 22 | -7.1 | pass |
| Result · Switzerland win | 17 | 19 | 21 | +1.7 | pass |
| Total goals · Over 1.5 | — | 71 | 85 | +13.8 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 2.5 | — | 46 | 65 | +19.6 | bet |
| Total goals · Over 3.5 | — | 25 | 43 | +18.0 | bet |
| Both teams score · Yes | — | 48 | 63 | +14.9 | bet |
What-if: try a price
Type any price to see how the model would have sized it. Sizing is a share of the paper bankroll, never money.
model
58%
edge
-1.2%
half-kelly stake
0.0%