ONGOING · 2026 · LIVE TOOL
World Cup 2026 Value-Betting Model
A goals model for the 2026 World Cup, fit on 200 real matches from that year. For every knockout tie it prices six markets, simulates the bracket all the way to a champion, and then grades its own call once the game is played.
6markets per match
PythonPoisson / Dixon-ColesKelly CriterionNext.jsTypeScript
THE STORY
I wanted to know whether a simple goals model could beat my own instinct about soccer. So I built one. It published its picks before each round, refit its ratings after every round, and graded every call against the real result. It went 24 of 32 on advancement. It also lost on paper against the market, which is the part most results pages leave out.
LIVE DEMO
Try the live modelDOCUMENTS
CODE
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