COMPLETED · STA 160 · RETURNS 2026-27
Predicting Player Passes in the Premier League
A bootstrap regression that predicts how many passes a Liverpool player completes in a match. I tested it two ways: against four real betting lines, and against the end of a season it had never seen. It picks back up over the full 2026-27 season.
10graded predictions
Bootstrap ResamplingRMarket EfficiencyLinear Regression
THE STORY
Playing the game helped here. I could see form shifts and tactical changes in the fixtures before the raw numbers caught them, and I used that to choose which players to model. Ten graded calls is not enough to claim anything: four against live market lines, six against a stretch of season the model had never seen. The full 2026-27 season is the real test.
DOCUMENTS
CODE
Private repo (course project) · available on request